Around 1 in 8 (13%) trading businesses reported an increase in turnover for November 2025 compared to the previous month, remaining broadly stable from October levels, the ONS revealed in its latest Business Insights and Impact bulletin. However, for larger firms with 10 or more employees, this figure dipped to 19%, down 6 percentage points over the same period, signalling softening demand among mid-sized enterprises.

Uncertainty Peaks Amid Broader Challenges

Economic uncertainty emerged as the dominant challenge in early December 2025, cited by 33% of trading businesses as impacting their turnovera 4 percentage point rise from November and the highest proportion since early October 2022. This marked the top-reported issue since early July 2022, with only 27% of businesses reporting no turnover challenges, the lowest since January 2023.

For businesses employing 10 or more people, the figure climbed to 36%, reclaiming the top spot for the first time since October 2024 and hitting the highest since early April 2025. Just 20% of these larger firms reported no challenges, highlighting heightened vulnerability.

Price Pressures and Forward Expectations

More than a quarter (27%) of trading businesses noted increases in the prices of goods or services bought in November compared to October, up 2 percentage points. In contrast, only 9% reported rises in selling prices, stable since May after peaking earlier in the year. The wholesale and retail trade sector saw the highest incidence of selling price increases at 16%.

Looking ahead, 23% expect to raise selling prices in January 2026, up 12 points from December expectations and the highest since May, though aligned with last year's seasonal pattern. Labour costs were the leading factor for potential price hikes, cited by 30% of firmsthe highest since April 2022followed by energy prices (24%), raw materials (22%), and finance costs (17%). Notably, 40% are not planning price increases, the lowest such proportion since June 2023.

Turnover Outlook Remains Cautious

Expectations for January 2026 show 12% of trading businesses anticipating turnover growth, stable from December and consistent with prior years. However, 25% foresee a decline, also stable, with the accommodation and food services sector hit hardest at 53%a sharp 34-point jump from December.

These findings come as the Bank of England's Financial Policy Committee noted elevated global risks but affirmed UK financial system resilience, maintaining the countercyclical capital buffer at 2%. The ONS data paints a picture of UK businesses grappling with entrenched uncertainty, potentially weighing on economic momentum into 2026.