Polling company Savanta has conducted research suggesting that twice as many business leaders prefer Angela Rayner (34%) over Oliver Dowden (17%) to be the next Deputy PM. However, 50% said they either did not know or did not want either of them. Savanta asked 1,000 business decision makers which senior Labour and Conservative politicians they would prefer to see in Government, with the advantage going to nearly all of Starmer's team. Keir Starmer polled 15-points higher than Rishi Sunak as business leaders’ preferred PM (42% to 27%, while Rachel Reeves (33%) held a narrower 5-point lead over Jeremy Hunt for Chancellor (28%). Jonathan Reynolds polled 26% for next Business Secretary, while current business secretary Kemi Badenoch polled just 14% however the most popular answer (30%) was 'neither of these two'. The only Conservative figure to be preferred to their Labour counterpart was Home Secretary David Cameron. 34% of business figures surveyed prefer the former PM, while only 25% opted for his opposition partner David Lammy.

The world’s transition to Net Zero will add 1.6% to inflation annually for the next decade, French asset manager Carmignac says, meaning central banks will struggle to keep inflation under control because of the high levels of spending needed for green energy projects. Raphaël Gallardo, Carmignac’s chief economist, says this will also put central banks at odds with national Governments, and force them to prioritise either low inflation or a faster transition to Net Zero. “[Central Banks could] say our goal is price stability, which we interpret to be 2%. To avoid the possibility that inflation rises to 3.6% for 10 years, we need to hike interest rates very rapidly and dramatically,” he said, “but that would be in conflict with the objective of the Government to achieve the energy transition”. The upshot is that the cost of capital will be much higher, and that “the next 10 years are going to be very tricky for central bank independence”.

Shop inflation has fallen again, in part thanks to retailers slashing prices on TVs to attract football fans during the Euros, according to the data crunchers at the British Retail Consortium (BRC) and Nielsen. Prices in the retail sector increased 0.2% in the year to June, down from 0.6% in May. Non-food prices also fell 1% in the year to June, down from a 0.8%., while annual food inflation slowed to 2.5% in June, its lowest level since December 2021 and the 14^th consecutive fall in the rate of food price increases.

Consumer borrowing increased by a net £1.5bn in May, Bank of England data released yesterday showed, suggesting recovering momentum in the British economy. £790m was borrowed in April.

British manufacturing activity has slowed from May's 22-month high, according to the closely-watched S&P Global's UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index. The drop, to 50.9 in June from 51.2 in May, has been attributed to ongoing disruption to shipping in the Red Sea as well as lower demand from overseas customers. A score of 50 separates growth from contraction.

30 London-listed companies have come under offer in the first six months of the year at an average price of just over £1bn, according to analysis from investment bank Peel Hunt. 11 were in the FTSE 250, marking a sharp increase on the same period last year when just two of London’s largest 250 companies were the subject of takeover bids.

Motor Finance Commission: a test case brought by three individuals, but merged together, will be heard at the Court of Appeal this week, City AM reports. The cases, against merchant banking group Close Brothers, South Africa’s Firstrand Bank, and Firstrand Bank and Motonovo Finance, centre what duty (if any) is owed where commission has been paid to a garage which has arranged for its customers to enter into a finance agreement with a finance company.; and how the law relating to secret and half-disclosed commissions might apply to motor finance commission payments. Earlier this year, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) announced it was launching a review into historical motor finance commission arrangements and sales across several firms, and the Financial Ombudsman Services has said it “recognises” that “the Court of Appeal’s decisions could have an impact on our approach to complaints that include similar issues”. The motor finance industry has braced itself for potential compensation fees which analysts have estimated could be as high as £16bn. Close Brothers is known to have set aside around £400m in response to the probe, while Lloyds bank has made a £450m provision.

Unite has called off a strike planned for 8^th at the Tata steelworks in Port Talbot, Wales, saying it is entering further discussions regarding the future of Britain's largest steel plant. On Thursday last week, Tata threatened to close its two remaining blast furnaces within days because of the planned strike, pointing to safety concerns that would arise as a result of the walkout. This fuelled concerns by other trade unions that Unite's strike would speed up the closure of blast furnace number four, which was not due to be shut for another three months. Both the Community and GMB unions hope to extend the life of the remaining furnace. Unite General secretary Sharon Graham said fresh talks were "essential" because workers are not prepared to “stand idly by while steel making ended and their communities were laid to waste." Tata also offered fresh negotiations with all three unions provided Unite’s strike was called off.

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has agreed to buy financial data group Preqin for £2.55bn in cash, beating S&P Global and Bloomberg to the purchase. The acquisition was first reported by the Financial Times (FT) on Sunday, which pointed out Preqin provides data on the private capital industry, such as tracking private equity and hedge fund performance, for clients including banks, asset managers and investment firms. The sector has traded at a premium in recent years as the size of the private markets industry has swelled to more than $14tn (£11tn) in assets, the newspaper added. The firm says it has the “biggest and most robust data set on private capital performance on the planet”, and boasts 48,000 customers, a 500-strong research team and offices in 15 cities, including London, New York, Beijing and Dubai. “Private markets are the hot new thing within asset management,” City AM notes this morning: “As good companies stay private for longer due to fewer companies floating on the London Stock Exchange, investors want to get a stake of unlisted assets”. Meanwhile, The Telegraph says the deal means Preqin’s founders, husband and wife duo Mark and Lindy O’Hare, who own 80% of the business through their family holding company Valhalla Ventures, are now richer than BlackRock boss Larry Fink, who founded the business 36 years ago and is worth £1.3bn.

Erin Platts, the former boss of Silicon Valley Bank’s (SVB) UK arm, has been appointed UK CEO of London-based investment firm Octopus Ventures. SVB UK went bust last year and was taken over by HSBC. Platts will stay in her current role until the end of the year to help choose her successor and will then become a “special advisor” to HSBC from the beginning of 2025. “The rescue of the Silicon Valley Bank UK and its transition to HSBC Innovation Banking last June was a commercially shrewd move by HSBC. The bank reported a gain of $1.6bn on the deal after buying the business for a solitary £1,” City AM says.

Revolut has swung to a record annual profit, nearly doubling its revenue for 2023 to £1.8bn, and posting a pretax profit of £438m for the year. The British challenger bank posted a £25.4m loss in 2022. Fee income soared to £1.2bn from £793m as the bank attracted almost 12m retail customers over the year, bring its total customer base to 38m. Customer balances rose 38% to £18.2bn. However, Revolut has yet to secure a UK banking licence, meaning it cannot offer products such as mortgages and credit cards in its home market. The regulatory process typically takes one year, but Revolut has been waiting since January 2021.